Nikola is overvalued because it chose the wrong technology for road vehicles. The fair market value is cash plus some multiple for engineers.

Disclosure: the author is short Nikola, meaning he financially benefits if the share price falls. Please consider this bias while reading.

Falsifiers: (1) Nikola abandons hydrogen and…

Not first-to-market? Don’t worry.

Entrepreneurs often share startup ideas and hear, “Isn’t X doing the same thing?” This is actually the common case as only one company can claim the first-to-market mantle.

It’s natural to feel discouraged or wonder if the window of opportunity passed, but history has proven unequivocally: first-to-market guarantees nothing.


Steve Jobs is one of the most extraordinary entrepreneurs and CEOs in history. Here are five lessons on entrepreneurship and business learned by studying him from afar (post inspired by Tren Griffin):

  1. Products succeed because of tradeoffs, not perfection. Most people viewed Jobs as a perfectionist. In reality, he revolutionized…

Bull Hypothesis

WeWork is a hybrid of AWS and Marriott. Because WeWork leverages technology and scale to lower costs, increase flexibility, and improve the office experience, companies across the world will outsource office creation and management to WeWork. Co-working is merely the springboard.

Bear Hypothesis

WeWork is an overhyped-Regus with a frail capital structure…

Market hypothesis 1: Electric vehicles (EV) are a hyper-growth market.

  • Falsifying data: EV sales slow down.
  • Falsifying data: Polls or other sentiment analysis reveal decreased demand among consumers and enterprises.

Market hypothesis 2: Autonomous vehicles are a hyper-growth market.

  • Falsifying data: Edge cases prove difficult to solve, delaying release dates.

Aluminum costs ~$0.05 / ounce while gold costs ~$1.2K / ounce. The disparity is caused not by differences in inherent utility, but by “blind faith,” i.e., people consider gold valuable so it is.

If people can will gold into being worth ~24,000x more than aluminum, why can’t people will Bitcoin into becoming digital gold? And then a global currency? They can, but like tulips, the risk is this blind faith one day evaporates.

The difference between Bitcoin and tulips is Bitcoin may get integrated into digital products the same way gold was integrated into physical products like jewelry.

Is this guaranteed? Of course not, especially since Bitcoin might get surpassed by superior product/technology like Friendster did with Facebook.

Is this not a fair way to reason about Bitcoin’s risk/reward?

Increasing competition generally lowers prices in a free market. This is a fundamental law of industry and not a novel concept.

How can we promote competition in the drug industry? Two ways:

  1. Reduce clinical regulation with simple, clear consent forms like tobacco warnings.
  2. Kill drug patents.

Valid counter-arguments are the…

Uber believes self-driving cars will mirror air travel. When tech and regulation standardize, this may be true. However, geography and regulation vary much more for cars than planes and thus offer more room for differentiation.

If Waymo doesn’t have a multi-year lead, Uber may be right, and this post is…

One of the challenges in developing and releasing a product is what to name it.

It’s expensive and time-consuming to generate awareness of and trust in a new product so many companies reuse an established brand, a tactic called brand extension. … is the latest Silicon Valley startup to attack the real estate industry.

Essentially, the startup buys and resells homes. My initial reaction was the Opendoor founders were smoking something amazing. …

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